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Scenario 1 - Lawn weeds - Consumer, 1976
Method 5, Confidence low
Manufacturer (a) Sales
($ million) (a)
Product (a) Sales
($ million) (b)
Active
Ingredient (a)
Sales
($ million) (c)
Ortho 11.5 Crabgrass 4.0 MSMA 4.0
2,4-D 4.0
Weed-B-Gone 7.5 2,4-D 7.5
MCPP 2.5
Silvex (fenoprop) 2.5
Scott 3.0 Granule 3.0 2,4-D 3.0
Dicamba 3.0
Amchem 2.5 Weedone 1.0 MSMA 1.0
DSMA 1.0
Weedone Super 0.8 2,4-D 0.8
Dicamba 0.8
Silvex (fenoprop) 0.8
Weedone granulated 0.7 MSMA 0.7
DSMA 0.7
Lebanon 1.0 Greenview granulated 1.0 Benefin 1.0
Famco 0.4 Crabgrass prev gran 0.4 Dacthal 0.4
Other 2.0 Other 2.0 Other 2.0
  20.4        
Active
Ingredient (d)
Sales ($ millions)
(calculated) (e)
Probability
(calculated) (f)
2,4-D 15.3 75%
MSMA 5.7 28%
Dicamba 3.8 19%
Fenoprop 3.3 16%
MCPP 2.5 12%
DSMA 1.7 8%
Benefin 1.0 5%
Dacthal 0.4 2%
Other 2.0 10%
  1. Kline (Ramsey and Kollonitsch, 1977), except for "other," which was based on judgment. The Kline report lists three additional manufactuers (USS Agrichemicals, Occidental, Swift) ($3 million total sales) but does not identify their products or active ingredients. We assumed that their active ingredients were similar in identity and proportion of sales to those listed here, and we do not list them on the table or include them in the calculations.
  2. Allocation of each manufacturer's sales to major products was based on judgment.
  3. Sales for each active ingredient are set equal to the sales for the product containing that active ingredient. Exception: For Ortho Weed-B-Gone, MCPP and silvex (fenoprop) are each set at $2.5 million rather than $7.5 million because only one-third of Ortho Weed-B-Gone products contained these active ingredients.
  4. Eliminating duplicates.
  5. Combining active ingredient sales across all products in which it appears.
  6. Sales for each active ingredient divided by total sales ($20.4 million).